The young lose on all the plans compared to current rates for the same plan, but middle-aged and older people able to afford the "gold" plan may see a slight reduction in monthly fees.
Under Kaiser Permanente's proposed Portland area Obamacare bronze plan, 21 year olds are slated to pay $72** more a month; 40 years olds $42 more per month, and 60 years olds $68 more every month for the same or similar coverage as they can get through Kaiser right now.
In contrast 40 and 60 year olds with gold plan coverage (which pays "an estimated 80% of medical costs") will see an 8% and 13% decline respectively (from $329/mo to $302/mo for 40 year olds and $741/mo to $641/mo for 60 year olds). However, 21 year olds will still see a sharp increase of 35% even in the gold plan (from $175/mo to $236/mo).
This begs the question of whether health insurers are spiking the rates at the low end because they realize that government subsidies will pay costs for many newly insured. Thus, there is no need to have competitive rates in the bronze area since government funds roll in no matter what. There has been no data presented on why current bronze rate payers will suddenly cost 85% (or 26% or 19%) more whereas silver and gold plan users will not.
Maybe health insurers foresee that the 11 million newly insured (subsidized by the government) will still not be able to pay the 40% of costs the insured is to pay under the bronze plan (or 30% of costs if most buy the silver plan). So, emergency room care previously given to the 11 million will likely continue (as it has in Massachusetts). And the 40% of medical expenses not covered, as well as co-pay and prescription expenses will not be paid either. Certainly the health insurers will not legally (or ethically) be able to deny service to people whose premiums have been paid but are unable to pay the 40% still owing not to mention co-pays and prescription fees.
What better way to recoup those funds than to increase charges to the class of people tax subsidies will pay for? At least the subsidized premiums of those users will roll in. But in the end the losses may be so big (imagine not receiving 40%+ of every dollar billed) that all premium payers will see a hefty rise in healthcare fees to cover those bad debts.
*Actual rates vary as Kaiser currently has two gold plans, three silver plans, and two bronze plans. The highest current plan rate was used as the basis for comparison so that differences in the two rates are skewed in favor of the Obamacare rate.
**All Obamacare rate figures are for non-tobacco users. For tobacco users add $125/mo more for 21 year olds, $160/mo for 40 year olds, and $341/mo for 60 year olds.