Saturday, January 01, 2011

To Win Palin Only Needs to Be as Good as George H. W. Bush

Ian Lazaran:
"Some people think it’s a stretch to claim that Governor Palin can comeback against Barack Obama in the same way Ronald Reagan came back against Jimmy Carter because Reagan is an once-in-a-lifetime political talent. What some of these people don’t recognize is that Palin doesn’t need to be as great as Reagan to comeback against Barack Obama. All she needs to be is as good as George H.W. Bush.

"What a lot of people don’t remember about the 1988 presidential contest between Vice President Bush and Michael Dukakis is that Dukakis led Bush by huge margins at a late stage in the election. Dukakis even led by Bush by 10 in Texas in the summer of 1988! (By contrast, Palin leads Obama by 15 in Texas)

"Under the logic that some employ against Palin, George H.W. Bush should have been toast. After all, he was a completely known figure as Vice-President just as Palin is now. People had allegedly already formed their opinions on Bush. And yet, Bush came back to defeat Dukakis handily despite the fact that Bush never possessed anything close to Reagan’s political talent.

"The point of this post is that those arguing that Palin is not as politically talented as Reagan are arguing against a straw man. She doesn’t need to be as good as Reagan to win. All she needs to be is as good as George H.W. Bush and nobody would ever mistake Bush for an incredible political talent."
Good point, Ian. And Palin is a phenomenal political talent. Only she and Barack Obama can generate enthusiastic crowds in the tens of thousands.

2 comments:

denny said...

True, it may not take a great political figure to beat Obama, but otherwise it is hard to compare Palin to H.W. Bush.

Can you think of any two people on the GOP side who are less alike? Her strengths and weaknesses are diametrically opposed to elder Bush's. She generates strong feelings in people, and communicates her passions easily and believably. She has good political instincts, but is sometimes rash in her comments.

Bush 41...was a competent administrator.

T. D. said...

I agree that Palin and H. W. Bush are quite different personally and in political genius.

Palin seems to see central issues easily, Bush had no clue about the political devastation of going from "read my lips" to "read my hips".

As to competent administration, among other accomplishments Palin tripled Alaska's savings in her 2-1/2 year governorship and negotiated AGIA the largest private sector infrastructure project in North American history.

Further, whereas my state, Oregon, is in major budget crisis as are neighboring states Washington and California(!!), Palin set Alaska on the path to multibillion dollar budget surpluses (2008, 2010).

I'm not sure of H. W. Bush's administrative accomplishments, but I'll take your word that they are there.

Thanks for your comment.