Friday, April 29, 2016

Trump Leads in Oregon Polling

Hoffman Research Group polled 555 Oregon Republican primary voters April 26th and 27th. Here are the results:
Trump - 43%
Cruz - 26%
Kasich - 17%
Undecided - 13%

If undecideds had to vote, they would break:
Still Undecided - 42%
Trump - 25%
Kasich - 18%
Cruz - 15%

In terms of regions:
Multnomah Co. - 43% Trump, 24% Cruz, 22% Kasich
Clackamas Co. - 29% Trump, 31% Cruz, 24% Kasich
Washington Co. - 33% Trump, 17% Cruz, 31% Kasich
Mid - 37% Trump, 34% Cruz, 15% Kasich
Coast - 59% Trump, 22% Cruz, 15% Kasich
Southern - 52% Trump, 24% Cruz, 13% Kasich
Eastern - 52% Trump, 22% Cruz, 9% Kasich 

In terms of age groups:
18-34 - 31% Trump, 40% Cruz, 17% Kasich
35-54 - 46% Trump, 29% Cruz, 14% Kasich
55+ - 45% Trump, 21% Cruz, 19% Kasich

In terms of gender:
Male - 53% Trump, 22% Cruz, 17% Kasich
Female - 34% Trump, 30% Cruz, 17% Kasich

Age by gender:
Young male - 45% Trump, 29% Cruz, 16% Kasich
Young female - 18% Trump, 50% Cruz, 18% Kasich
Older male - 54% Trump, 21% Cruz, 17% Kasich
Older female - 36% Trump, 28% Cruz, 17% Kasich

Cruz wins Clackamas Co. (barely), the young (18-34), and young females (by a lot!).
Interestingly Kasich, who I would have thought would do well in moderate Oregon, wins no group, but comes close in Washington Co.

This is the party whose losing gubernatorial candidate in 2010, Chris Dudley, voted for Obama in 2008. And the party that has not won the governorship since 1987. The chances of Oregon going Republican for either position in 2016 are slim to non-existent.

H/T Harry Enten


MAX Redline said...

Looks like the young girls are smarter than the young boys.

T. D. said...

You got a chuckle for that, Max. In politics it would be a first.

MAX Redline said...

Duds didn't lose by much, but I'm not sure we'd have been any better off had he won.

Allen Alley seems to thin third time's the charm. I don't; he's disorganized and he buddies up to the Democratics too much.

Bud Pierce seems like the better choice at this point. There's some other guy running, whose name I forget, but he's a real nutter; wants to solve the drought "crisis" by running pipes along the bed of the Columbia River, then down to California....

T. D. said...

For me, no good choices for governor this time. I liked Richardson last time.

I think you're right that a Dudley win probably wouldn't have changed that much. He was too easily "disheartened"/confused. Imagine how he would have stood up to hardball Dem politics in Oregon.

"Dudley's father, a Democrat, says his son voted for Barack Obama for president after becoming disheartened by President Bush's tenure and by Sarah Palin's entry on the Republican ticket."