Do face masks really help that much?
Does social distancing really help that much?
Does going out very little really help that much?
All of these are part of the insistent clamor about what stops COVID-19. It is a flu. Now that the flu season is upon us, we may be able to judge their effectiveness by how much or how little they do to stop flu hospitalizations and deaths compared to previous years.
My own view is that all those things only delay the moment of contact with COVID-19. I believe most everyone will eventually be exposed to it, so the main benefit of masks, social distancing and lack of travel is keeping the medical system from being overwhelmed by patients at any particular time.
The CDC estimates average annual deaths from the flu as between 12,000 and 61,000 since 2010 in the U.S. That's a pretty wide range. But, actually determining deaths from diseases like the flu or COVID-19 is not that easy. Almost always there are contributing factors that in themselves could cause death as well. So, determining the major cause of death is a guess.
Here are the figures for each year:
2010-2011 - 37,000 deaths
2011-2012 - 12,000 deaths
2012-2013 - 43,000 deaths
2013-2014 - 38,000 deaths
2014-2015 - 51,000 deaths
2015-2016 - 23,000 deaths
2016-2017 - 38,000 deaths
2017-2018 - 61,000 deaths*
2018-2019 - 34,000 deaths*
2019-2020 - 22,000 deaths*
*Estimates from the 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 seasons are preliminary and may change as data are finalized.
Still, these are ballpark numbers that might give indications of the effectiveness of the current COVID-19 strategies.
2 comments:
Thus far, I've been fortunate. OTOH, I don't go out much, apart from taking Doggers for his walks. I shop about twice a month.
Just took my dad in for his flu shot today. I got one too in a drive thru Kaiser had at Clackamas Town Center. Actually worked pretty good though it was a ways to drive. I usually don't go out of my way to get them. Haven't seen a difference in getting them and not getting them.
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