Oregonian Has Trouble Explaining Business Flight from the City Center

 From a recent Oregonian article on businesses almost frantic to leave city center:

"Businesses want out of downtown Portland, as soon as possible.

"The amount of space available for sublease in downtown jumped by 36% in the spring as tenants sought to vacate offices and storefronts in the early months of the coronavirus pandemic, according to data provided by real estate firm CBRE. Other firms have also reported an increase in the number of downtown businesses looking to leave."

 The lead thought is that it is due to the pandemic though protests are mentioned.

"The pandemic has led to empty office buildings and a lack of tourism, depriving downtown businesses of their regular clientele. Business owners have expressed concerns about continued downtown protests, which have given Portland a reputation for upheaval and, at times, led to vandalism and looting."

Reporter Jamie Goldberg does take issue with real estate firm vice president Trevor Kafoury's claim that it is national coverage of Portland protests, not the protests themselves, that is causing people to stay away from downtown in droves. She points out that Kassab Jewelers and Standard Insurance have had real security problems.

“'I don’t think there are ‘unique’ issues,' Kafoury said. 'Many downtowns face issues related to social unrest. However, Portland has received an inordinate amount of national media attention and a challenge we face is overcoming the perception that has been created for downtown.'”

"However, it isn’t an issue of perception for some downtown businesses.

"Kassab Jewelers was looted after a riot broke out on May 30 following a peaceful protest in the wake of George Floyd’s death at the hands of Minneapolis police officers. Kassab Jewelers' downtown location has yet to reopen and its owners are now suing the City of Portland for failing to protect downtown merchants.

"Bob Speltz, a spokesman for Portland-based insurance company The Standard, said in August that the company had relocated downtown employees to the suburbs after its office building sustained repeated damage and several employees and security contractors were assaulted near the downtown office. He said The Standard was deeply supportive of a renewed focus on racial justice, but concerned about continued 'criminal activity from opportunists not associated with the legitimate protests.'”

Still Goldberg has trouble putting two and two together. She reports that businesses are fleeing downtown Portland to places "outside downtown and in the suburbs"--which have the same COVID-19 problems as downtown Portland. So, why is business so much better outside city center? Goldberg doesn't seem interested in finding the answer.

"Industry experts aren’t seeing the same problems outside downtown and in the suburbs.

"[Jacob] Pavlik [a real estate company research manager] said some companies that were already considering moving their offices to the suburbs have been quicker to pull the trigger because of questions about the downtown market. Kafoury said he has seen numerous downtown tenants touring suburban spaces and considering a move out of downtown as well. Other tenants have stayed in downtown spaces after working with their landlords to restructure their leases."

The only major difference that has suddenly appeared on the scene is the protests and their violence which the mayor, city council and the Multnomah County district attorney seem not at all interested in curbing. In fact, another Oregonian article released on the 7th reports the Multnomah County DA Mike Schmidt has "declined" to prosecute 70% of the protest cases referred to him. That he hasn't declined to prosecute 70% of all cases referred to him by the police shows that he has been corrupted by personal agreement with or fear of the law breaking protesters so that he treats them differently from all other law breakers--which is, paradoxically, exactly what the protesters are supposed to be protesting--unequal treatment. The new slogan should be: Defund District Attorneys!

Schmidt doesn't seem to have a problem prosecuting violence outside city center and in the suburbs even for minor crimes, but downtown it's a different story. People see that difference and feel how dangerous downtown has become but don't feel similarly about doing business outside the downtown area or in the suburbs.

It's pretty clear that violence will continue in city center and business will continue its disastrous decline as long as people like Schmidt, Wheeler and the Portland City Council are elected. Caveat emptor.

 

Results of 2020 Flu Season May Be a Good Test of Effectiveness of COVID-19 Strategies

Do face masks really help that much?

Does social distancing really help that much?

Does going out very little really help that much?

All of these are part of the insistent clamor about what stops COVID-19. It is a flu. Now that the flu season is upon us, we may be able to judge their effectiveness by how much or how little they do to stop flu hospitalizations and deaths compared to previous years. 

My own view is that all those things only delay the moment of contact with COVID-19. I believe most everyone will eventually be exposed to it, so the main benefit of masks, social distancing and lack of travel is keeping the medical system from being overwhelmed by patients at any particular time.

The CDC estimates average annual deaths from the flu as between 12,000 and 61,000 since 2010 in the U.S. That's a pretty wide range. But, actually determining deaths from diseases like the flu or COVID-19 is not that easy. Almost always there are contributing factors that in themselves could cause death as well. So, determining the major cause of death is a guess.

Here are the figures for each year:

    2010-2011 - 37,000 deaths

    2011-2012 - 12,000 deaths

    2012-2013 - 43,000 deaths 

    2013-2014 - 38,000 deaths

    2014-2015 - 51,000 deaths

    2015-2016 - 23,000 deaths

    2016-2017 - 38,000 deaths

    2017-2018 - 61,000 deaths*

    2018-2019 - 34,000 deaths*

    2019-2020 - 22,000 deaths*

    *Estimates from the 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 seasons are preliminary and may change as data are finalized.

Still, these are ballpark numbers that might give indications of the effectiveness of the current COVID-19 strategies.

Oregonian blames pandemic rather than violence for restaurant failure

Vitaly and Kimberly Paley

Oregonian email headline: A Portland chef on the pandemic and downtown restaurants: 'There’s not a single soul walking by'

You can't read the story if you aren't a subscriber, but the headline seems to indicate the chef blames it all on COVID-19. Here's the first paragraph from the email:

"DOWNTOWN DINING: Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the James Beard Award-winning chef Vitaly Paley and his wife, Kimberly Paley, employed more than 200 people across their Portland restaurants, including Imperial (shown here in 2012). But as downtown Portland emptied out amid the coronavirus pandemic, Imperial brought in less than 20% of its pre-coronavirus business. It closed Saturday after an eight-year run, and other Paley restaurants downtown have dim futures."

But, the main huge factor for no one eating at downtown restaurants is the continuing violence downtown (last touted as 100 days of protest).

COVID-19 certainly has had an impact because of Governor Brown's mandates about social distancing which cuts restaurant business at least in half for indoor dining. 

However, that it isn't the major reason for the 80% drop off in Chef Paley's restaurants can be seen by restaurants open and doing business in other parts of the city where there is no ongoing violence. In my area even mom and pop restaurants are open, some doing only takeout but a significant number with in restaurant dining. COVID-19 isn't keeping customers away from their restaurants, though, of course, governmental rules have made profitability extremely difficult.

Poor Chef Vitaly Paley had the bad sense to locate his restaurants in downtown Portland where government is incapable of doing the main job of government: keeping its population safe.

I feel sorry for Chef Paley and the other business owners in downtown Portland. They may have an excellent product and business model, but that doesn't mean anything when government is so incompetently run that people fear to go to near their businesses.

I have long tried to avoid doing any business downtown. Traffic patterns have long been a mess. But now you couldn't pay me to go downtown. There's not only the violence but the city can't even stop protesters from blocking off major streets--even the freeway. Who wants to risk being stuck in a giant traffic jam, let alone face possible physical violence? And when it comes time to move, you better believe I will do everything possible to locate outside Portland city limits.

 

Can We Believe Public Officials on the Fires?

I just saw Clackamas County Sheriff Craig Roberts (11:00 mark) at a news conference saying that people setting fires is not a real problem. Though he said they want tips called in to 911, the only example he gave was a false one. So, his message was more one of downplaying any danger than asking people to help avert it. Of course, they are trying to be careful (if not politically correct) because one of their deputies said Antifa was setting fires. But, I have good reason to believe the sheriff is at best hiding part of the truth.

I was at a medical appointment this week and the doctor said his sign had "kill cops" graffiti written on it last week (which he cleaned off). Then over the weekend people set fire to his dumpsters which were next to a house fence and started to burn the fence. The fire department was alerted by home owners since no one was at the office.

Another friend received a text message from a friend living in Washington County that on the way to work she had seen a car driving slow with flashers on and shooting fireworks through the car window towards the trees. Apparently that person was apprehended due to car description and license information.

These are two clear cases I have heard verifiable testimony on. Contrast that with no one I know has had COVID-19 and no one I know knows someone in Oregon who has had COVID-19. No one in my entire friend/acquaintance network knows of a single person who has died from it. But here are two concrete fire cases coming from that same limited network. I have more personal evidence for arsonists than for COVID-19.

On the Multnomah County Sheriff's site:

We are at a loss for words. Patrol deputies, along with Corbett firefighters responded to a small brush fire in the 1700 block of NE Brower Rd at 3:52 p.m. Neighbors heard several pops and saw six foot flames in the forest about 100 yards off the road. Using a shovel and water, they were able to put it out before it spread further. Corbett Fire is mopping up. Upon investigation, deputies found spent fireworks. The case is open. 

 

Deputies are conducting high visibility patrols in rural Multnomah County until the fire threat is over. Corbett Fire will remain in the area.

 

If you see an active fire, call 911.

 

Fireworks are illegal this time of year and pose a huge risk. No burning of any kind is allowed in Multnomah County, as a burn ban is in effect.

None of this is from Clackamas County, but it's hard to believe that Clackamas County alone in the Metro area would have no similar activity. If nothing else, the sheriff should take note of the danger in neighboring counties and encourage his county residents to look out for possible arson.

Still, saying all this, police are in such a tough situation with Defund cops and most Oregon political leaders against them versus police still trying to keep people safe in spite of politicized orders to turn a blind eye to violence. I feel sorry for police, fire fighters and emergency workers who are now targets of wrath.

Comcast's Safe Browser Acts as Malware

I thought I had somehow installed malware because I tried going to a site and was blocked from doing so by this screen:

The "Proceed Anyway" link doesn't work. The service comes up from safebrowse.io. It turns out this is a flawed service that Comcast "provides". Fortunately, there is information on how to disable it on the Comcast user forum.

The fix there is to go to your xFi (internet service link)

1. Click on More (at the upper right)

2. Click on My Services (at the middle left)

3. Under xFi Advanced Security click on the disable button

I only happened on the fix because in the midst of a bunch of false fix sites seeking to sell their service, was an entry from an discussions.apple.com site that mentioned it and was obviously not trying to sell software. A poster there pointed me to the Comcast user forum.

Glad I found out it was Comcast's fault and not mine for somehow clicking on a malware link. I'm going to let Comcast know how buggy their helpful safebrowse fix is.

Easy Remove of Obituary Search from Your Computer and Edge Browser

My cousin came over today with some laptop computer problems. One of them was a somewhat malware program that always came up when she turned the computer on and opened the Edge browser automatically.

I searched out various online fixes, and the ones you could do yourself on Edge didn't work because you couldn't get to the needed Advanced Settings section. Finally they directed you to buy their malware removal tool. Heh.

First I'll tell you what I did and then the steps that led to that. I hate to read "how to" lessons which lead you through a long introduction.

1. Open your control panel 

a. click on the magnifying glass search symbol next to your windows key at the bottom left of your computer screen and type "Control Panel" in the search box

b. Click on Control Panel app at the top left of the screen

2. Click on Programs - uninstall a program

3. Click on Programs and Features

4. Find Obituary Search in the list of programs

5. Uninstall it

It's not as malevolent as many malware programs because it can be easily uninstalled. But it is malevolent in that it changes your browser. You cannot uninstall your browser when it is active and it creates an Edge modification program that also cannot be uninstalled. Further, you can no longer get to the advanced settings section in Edge. So, it does bad things. But, thankfully, those can all be undone by uninstalling the Obituary Search program itself.

Once we uninstalled the program, Edge went back to normal, and Obituary Search did not come up running at computer startup.

By the way, McAfee was useless. I ran a scan on the Obituary Search application file, and it came out fine. I started to install a free McAfee malware tool, but never used it because I saw the Obituary Search program in her downloads list with the same date as the Edge modification program. I looked to see if it was in the installed programs list. It was and was uninstallable. I'm not sure if the McAfee malware program would help or not.

How Bad Will Kaiser Permanente Services Be When There Is a Widespread Medical Emergency?

Kaiser Permanente seems to have real problems in giving medical and information services even though the COVID-19 impact on Oregon has been quite low.*

I have a relative who works at the Oregon Clinic, a specialty medical facility. They are back to full speed and taking regular preventative care appointments. My source said they are concerned because lots of clients are now waiting for emergency health conditions to occur before scheduling appointments. Everyone knows that letting any problem go to emergency status before caring for it is a bad idea.  Letting one system get to emergency not only makes it harder to repair that system but you can have negatively impacted other systems as well.

So, I figured Kaiser Permanente might be up to speed too. They have pounded on the theme of preventative health care for years.

I called to schedule routine check up appointments that were overdue for my 96 year old father who has ongoing eye pressure check and ear cleaning needs to prevent loss of vision and ear infections. I was told Kaiser is only doing emergency type care and to call back in 4 to 6 weeks to see if they would be doing preventative or non-emergency care.

My dad isn't having notable problems with his eyes, but he is having discomfort with his ears. Tough luck. Anything that cannot be handled by text or a video visit is not available unless it's an emergency.

Further, we just got a note that he is due for labs that need to be done within the next four weeks and that he needs to have his eyes checked every year because he is a diabetic and to make an appointment if they haven't been checked in a year. Apparently the person sending the letter has no idea that Kaiser is not making eye check up appointments.

Kaiser's lab search feature on its facilities page does list all their facilities that do lab work. Unfortunately, most of them are not currently doing lab work. You have to go down the list and one-by-one check to see if the listed facility is using its lab. The ones I checked out only mentioned pharmacy services. Thus, the search feature was not enabled to find lab services currently functioning.

It seems that Kaiser is having a melt-down throughout its communication and medical services.

- Kaiser is unable to provide basic preventative medical services that the Oregon Clinic is now providing.

- The website is unable to clearly point to facilities currently giving specific medical services (which should be easy for its information technology people to update).

- Kaiser hasn't let it's basic preventative medical people know what services are available so they wrongly tell people they can and should schedule appointments.

This is a worrisome administrative breakdown. Their medical staff is still competent, but the people in charge of making that staff available to give medical care and advice are not.

One last small gripe. Apparently, they do not test their online letter links. The link at the end of the following sentence does not work because the link includes the period at the end of the sentence.

If you have questions about the contents of this letter, contact us at the phone number below. If you have questions about the refill status of your prescription(s), contact your local Kaiser pharmacy. For questions about clinic locations; services available; or business hours; check your Kaiser Permanente Medical Directory or online at www.kp.org/facilities.

I know enough to see the period problem when copying the link and pasting it in the url bar. But most of their clients don't know how urls work. They just end up frustrated by the error message when trying to use the link.

What a mess. If Kaiser has clear problems when there is no big COVID-19 impact in Oregon*, how bad will their medical care and system competence be when there is a widespread medical crisis?
----
*as of 6/19/20 6,344 total cases, 946 hospitalizations, and 188 total deaths in three and a half months of high level concern (they just updated the site to 6/22/20: 6,836 cases, 969 hospitalizations, 192 deaths)